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Forecasting the EU labour market in 2020

Forecasting the EU labour market in 2020

2010. 05. 04.

These are some of the findings from a new report released by Cedefop, the European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training, which tries to predict labour market trends and skills supply from 2010 to 2020 in the EU-27.
In total around 77 million job openings are forecast for the next decade. A large majority of these jobs, around 70 million, will be to replace retiring employees as the EU’s population ages. The report confirms that the transition towards a service economy will intensify and anticipates that almost seven million new jobs will be created, predominately in knowledge- and skill-intensive occupations, such as high-level managerial roles and professional or technical jobs. In parallel, it is expected that ‘routine’ jobs will decline with, for example, around four million job losses projected for skilled manual workers and two million for office clerks.
As today, just over one half of all jobs would be occupied by medium qualified workers in 2020, but the share of jobs held by the highly-qualified will increase from 29 to 35% at the expense of those held by low-qualified workers. Employment patterns will largely reflect skill supply trends, as more qualified younger generations enter the labour market and older people with lower qualifications leave for retirement. The report however points out that imbalances might occur and that it will be necessary to strengthen guidance and work in cooperation with employers to build skills strategies.
Skills upgrading in line with future needs, adapting education and training more closely to the world of work and improving the matching between supply and demand are key objectives for the EU New Skills for New Jobs initiative as well as for the ‘Europe 2020’ strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. This forecast can help all decision-makers to take informed decisions and progress on the implementation of these strategies.

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